Success and distress in the rural US: Defining and measuring "prosperity" in a rural context

In the wake of the 2016 US presidential election, journalists and authors who sought to make sense of rural voters’ enthusiastic support for Donald Trump found their attention drawn to many of the challenges facing rural... [ view full abstract ]

In the wake of the 2016 US presidential election, journalists and authors who sought to make sense of rural voters’ enthusiastic support for Donald Trump found their attention drawn to many of the challenges facing rural communities in the US today, including economic decline, lack of opportunity, and substance abuse, among other issues. While this newfound concern for rural problems is in some ways a welcome development, given that Americans living outside of metropolitan areas have often felt forgotten or ignored by the national media, it can also be unhelpful, as it promotes exaggerated images of rural America as a hellscape of despair in the popular imagination.  Although the myriad problems confronting rural people in the US are not likely to be solved anytime soon, a more accurate portrayal of rural communities would focus on their potential for success as well as sources of their distress.  In other words, those who are interested in the future of rural America should also examine the possibility of “prosperity” among certain rural places.  Scholars such as the late Andrew Isserman have argued that some rural communities can be considered “prosperous” even when they are not experiencing population or economic growth.  Building on this concept, I construct a “prosperity index” to define and measure indicators of “prosperity”—along with “distress,” its inverse—across rural US counties.  I also use factor analysis to highlight which elements are among the most significant dimensions of rural “prosperity,” and I examine the prevalence of these indicators across various regions of the country.  It is hoped that by drawing attention to what can go right in rural America rather than focusing solely on what is going wrong, researchers, policymakers, and others concerned with the future of rural places will be motivated to explore ways to improve life in rural communities today.