Mapping farmer expectations for changes in human and natural systems: implications for attracting falcons to fruit orchards

Farmers interact with both human and natural systems—their decision-making is influenced by what they expect to occur when variables within these systems change. These mental models are not well understood, and are difficult... [ view full abstract ]

Farmers interact with both human and natural systems—their decision-making is influenced by what they expect to occur when variables within these systems change. These mental models are not well understood, and are difficult to capture with traditional question formats in interviews and surveys. To address this limitation, we tested the effectiveness of fuzzy-logic cognitive mapping. For the first stage, we conducted interviews with Michigan blueberry and cherry farmers to identify factors that are most frequently considered when making pest management decisions, as well as the strength of the interactions between them (positive or negative). Analysis of this data, using the software Mental Modeler, suggests that fruit quality and cost are the most central considerations, but other key variables include pest pressure, effectiveness of management strategies, and timing. The results also indicate a high level of shared cultural understandings for these systems, and relatively little variation for farmers that differed by size or production method (e.g. organic certification). Relationships between these key variables were then explored in a second stage, a national, online survey of blueberry and cherry farmers. Our analysis focused on identifying common expectations of changing key variables in the system, such as increasing populations of natural predators, or decreasing operating costs. We found that fuzzy-logic cognitive mapping was a useful approach for estimating fruit farmers’ shared expectations for potential changes in the system, as well as identifying differences among subgroups. The results may also assist sustainability efforts, such as the conservation of natural predators. In particular, encouraging the more widespread use of nest boxes to attract falcons holds promise, due to a relatively low cost and widespread farmer expectations that installing them is likely to increase yields and fruit quality.