Age, period, and cohort processes in institutional trust, as contextualized by economic change in nonmetropolitan communities

After the Presidential Election of 2016, natural surprise was offered as to the impact of nonmetropolitan communities and working-class voters on the outcome. While much research has been done on racial, gender, and individual... [ view full abstract ]

After the Presidential Election of 2016, natural surprise was offered as to the impact of nonmetropolitan communities and working-class voters on the outcome. While much research has been done on racial, gender, and individual economic-based tensions, little research has addressed underlying macro-level economic shifts in nonmetropolitan communities that may underlie these tensions. Using hierarchical age-period-cohort with cross-classified random effect modeling (HAPC-CCREM) and a span of thirty-five years of empirical data, I address the linkage between macro-level economic conditions and institutional trust. I hypothesize that nonmetropolitan communities have experienced significant period forces that have influenced their levels of institutional trust. The statistical model reveals that while there was little difference between cohorts, statistical significance was achieved in many periods that overlay shocks to the less-diverse base of economic capital in nonmetropolitan America. Future models will introduce additional random, level 2 covariates to directly address community economic contexts across space and time.