Estimates suggest that, by 2031, roughly 70 to 80 percent of all jobs in Canada will require post-secondary training (see Miner, 2010; 2012). Indeed, some argue that we are already seeing substantial skill “mismatches”... [ view full abstract ]
Estimates suggest that, by 2031, roughly 70 to 80 percent of all jobs in Canada will require post-secondary training (see Miner, 2010; 2012). Indeed, some argue that we are already seeing substantial skill “mismatches” emerge, as the demands of our dynamic economy begin to outstrip the skillsets of recent graduates produced by domestic colleges and universities (Stuckey & Munro, 2013; Ontario Chamber of Commerce, 2012). These elevated demands pose particular challenges to rural and northern regions in Canada, long acknowledged by policymakers to suffer from acute human capital deficits (Beckley & Reimer, 1999; Bollman et al., 1992; Bollman, 1999). Rural residents both aspire to and obtain lower levels of education than their urban counterparts, even after controlling for a host of socio-economic factors (Finnie et al., 2015; Newbold & Brown, 2015; Zarifa, Hango & Pizarro Milian, forthcoming). Moreover, those that do obtain post-secondary training are often enticed to migrate to urban regions offering abundant employment opportunities and higher wages, spurring a “brain drain” that augments rural-urban skill differences (Corbett, 2005; Malatest & Associates, 2002; Rothwell et al., 2002; Tremblay, 2001). Reports published by both the Canadian Rural Revitalization Foundation (Lauzon et al. 2015) and the Ontario Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs (2011) have framed the recruitment of skilled workers to rural regions, and reversal of the “brain drain,” as a top economic development priority.
Despite an emerging consensus around the heightened skill demands brought on by the new knowledge economy, and concerns over skill deficits across rural regions, Canadian researchers have yet to systematically explore contemporary rural-urban differences in human capital using refined measures of literacy, numeracy and problem-solving skills. In this paper, we aim to ameliorate this deficiency within the existing literature by empirically mapping rural-urban disparities in skills outcomes across the working age population (16-65) in Canada. More specifically, we seek to answer the following research questions. First, to what extent do urban and rural residents differ in their literacy, numeracy and problem-solving skills in technological rich environments? Second, to what extent can any rural-urban skills gaps be explained by demographic, education, and employment characteristics? In other words, which factors account for rural-urban differences in skills outcomes? To investigate the extent to which urban and rural individuals may differ in their level of skills and to identify which social groups within these areas contribute to the skills gaps, we analyze data from Statistics Canada’s 2012 Longitudinal International Study of Adults (LISA). The LISA data are particularly beneficial for investigating these issues for two key reasons. First, the LISA data contain the skills scores obtained from the Canadian survey of PIAAC (Programme for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies) initiated by the OECD. Second, the LISA file contains tax file administrative data, which allows us to avoid self-reported inconsistencies surrounding key employment characteristics such as earnings.
