Choosing spatially explicit conservation actions in estuarine and coastal ecosystems

In the design of marine protected areas we need to not only incorporate both the influence of connectivity and climate change, but also the effect of climate change on connectivity. We use a structured decision-making approach... [ view full abstract ]

In the design of marine protected areas we need to not only incorporate both the influence of connectivity and climate change, but also the effect of climate change on connectivity. We use a structured decision-making approach to determine suitable development and management options to safeguard a productive near shore fishery while accommodating climate change and the associated human responses. Most ectothermic marine species are operating at or near their thermal limits. Ontogenetic ecosystem connectivity has important consequences for reef and coastal organisms that have nursery habitats detached from reproductive populations. Increased ocean temperatures are expected to accelerate larval development, potentially leading to reduced pelagic durations and earlier settlement behaviour. The spatial scale of connectivity for planktivorous larval movement is predicted to be reduced leading to a convergence in dispersal distances. To develop robust plans for conservation, species-specific analyses explicitly defining responses to environmental change are incorporated into prioritization. Candidate areas are identified and by applying complementarity, areas are selected among the candidates. By incorporating demography and dispersal, mechanistic modelling and time-series analysis in remote sensing, we are developing a spatially coherent network for species dispersal and persistence under changed climatic conditions by maximizing the conservation benefit for the lowest cost. We use the Zonation spatial prioritization software framework and apply our plan to the Mackay/Whitsunday NRM Region of North Queensland employing feature specific connectivity. Parametisation is with environmental and physiological data using the iconic species Lates calcarifer an economically important species in near shore tropical regions.