An integrating observational and modelling systems for the management of the Great Barrier Reef

The many values of the Great Barrier Reef, combined with the increasing impact of coastal development and climate change, demands that the reef is managed with the best available scientific information. Observational and... [ view full abstract ]

The many values of the Great Barrier Reef, combined with the increasing impact of coastal development and climate change, demands that the reef is managed with the best available scientific information. Observational and modelling systems provide two sources of knowledge that must be combined to provide a more complete view than either observations or models alone can provide. Here we describe the eReefs coupled hydrodynamic, sediment and biogeochemical model, and the multiple observations that are used to constrain the model. Two contrasting examples of model - observational integration are highlighted. First we explore the carbon chemistry of the waters above the reef, for which observations are accurate, but expensive and therefore sparse, while model behaviour is highly skilful. For carbon chemistry, observations are used to constrain model parameterisation and quantify model error, with the model output itself providing the most useable knowledge for management purposes. In contrast, ocean colour provides inaccurate, but cheap and spatially and temporally extensive observations. Thus ocean colour observations are best combined with the model in a data assimilating framework, where a custom-designed optical model has been developed for the purposes of incorporating ocean colour observations. Thus future management of GBR water quality will be based on an integration of observing and modelling systems, providing the most robust information available.