Developing a Met-Ocean Forecasting System for The Persian Gulf

Prediction of surface wind field and relevant wave characteristics for storm events is a matter of high importance for any marine/coastal forecasting system including the Iranian Seas Waters Forecasting System. This study aims... [ view full abstract ]

Prediction of surface wind field and relevant wave characteristics for storm events is a matter of high importance for any marine/coastal forecasting system including the Iranian Seas Waters Forecasting System. This study aims to establish a forecasting system for simulating surface wind field and predicting the resultant wave parameters for the next 120 hours over the entire Persian Gulf. To this end, for wind simulations, the third generation of the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model as a mesoscale meteorological numerical model is used which can provide accurate and high-resolution simulation of surface fields (such as wind). WRF is a fully parallel three dimensional atmospheric simulation system that numerically solves the fully compressible and non-hydrostatic equations governing the atmosphere. An ensemble prediction system with 15 members (three physical parametrization schemes and five initial condition perturbations for each one including control initial data) is employed to conduct the forecasts. Wind simulations over the Persian Gulf are performed for a number of events that observational data are available and the system performance was verified. The simulated wind field is applied to simulate wave generation over the entire model domain by using WAVEWATCH III model. Observational data are used to verify the model predictions.