Spatially explicit robust impact patterns: a new approach to account for uncertainties of long-term sea-level rise impacts at the local level

While sea-level rise (SLR) is a certain effect of climate change, there are deep uncertainties regarding when and how SLR can impact society, which act as a major barrier to adaptation. Recent literature has called for a shift... [ view full abstract ]

While sea-level rise (SLR) is a certain effect of climate change, there are deep uncertainties regarding when and how SLR can impact society, which act as a major barrier to adaptation. Recent literature has called for a shift from seeking optimal adaptation options based on best predictions to finding robust options that can perform reasonably under a range of possible futures, embracing uncertainties rather than eliminating them.

In response, this study develops a new approach, the Robust Impact Patterns (RIPs) method, to help decision-makers account for SLR impact uncertainties in developing robust adaptation actions. The method utilizes the pattern recognition capability of machine learning to transform thousands of local SLR impact maps into a small number of impact patterns that are robust across multiple futures, thereby processing an otherwise vast and overwhelming volume of impact information.

An application to the City of Vancouver demonstrated the feasibility of the RIPs method and assessed its practical utility. Geospatial models assessed 14 SLR impacts in 336 plausible scenarios that account for uncertainties in future storm intensity, SLR, land-use, power infrastructure resilience, and structural integrity of buildings. Results were synthesized into 16 robust impact patterns (RIPs). City officials and experts were engaged in a structured workshop to evaluate the method’s capability to support adaptation from the potential users’ perspective. The RIPs method was found to be a useful platform for convening multiple types of stakeholders to understand complex SLR impacts, which can facilitate the development of new adaptation ideas, partnerships, and resources for implementation.