Biophysical and socio-economic determinants of gastrointestinal diseases in Mexico City: a spatially explicit analysis

Urban environments are characterized by inherent socio-economic and ecological heterogeneity. From a public health perspective, this socio-ecological heterogeneity can influence the environment of several pathogens and... [ view full abstract ]

Urban environments are characterized by inherent socio-economic and ecological heterogeneity. From a public health perspective, this socio-ecological heterogeneity can influence the environment of several pathogens and therefore can modulate transmission and the population dynamics of human infectious diseases. Understanding the association between urban heterogeneity and the dynamics of health risk is thus critical for public health control strategies in the light of rapid urbanization and the expected increase in climatic extremes.

In this study, we present a methodological approach to incorporate the dynamics of health related vulnerability of the population of Mexico City into a multi-scalar decision model to inform adaptation to changing social-ecological conditions. We present the results of an analysis of the spatial and temporal distribution of confirmed cases of gastrointestinal diseases across boroughs within Mexico City, and the relationship of these patterns to socio-economic, climatic, and environmental factors. These results then inform the parameterization of a Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment model and epidemiological transmission models. These models will then unified into a decision-platform that combine other vulnerability indices with the dynamics of water and the decisions and actions of multiple actors of Mexico City water-governance system.

We discuss the opportunities and the challenges associated with our approach, our preliminary results and their implications for public health management. Finally we discuss why Mexico City presents as an ideal case to investigate the spatio-temporal dynamics of health vulnerability in urban environments.