Through nonpartisan voter registration and get-out-the-vote efforts, community based nonprofits can increase voter participation among low-income citizens and marginalized groups because they represent ‘trusted messengers’, meaning they are viewed as more trustworthy than other sources of mobilization (political parties, individual campaigns, etc.)[i]. Census data supports the notion of the trusted messenger theory, as Black and Latino citizens are more than twice as likely than whites to register via a nonprofit, and roughly 20% of registered voters with incomes under $15k are registered by a nonprofit group. Moreover, there is evidence that nonprofit voter engagement is effective [ii].
While much is known about the importance and effectiveness of nonprofits’ voter engagement efforts, there is a distinct gap in literature with regard to which nonpartisan messages work best to increase turnout. This study aims to address this gap. This paper will report findings from a field experiment conducted in partnership with four nonprofit organizations serving low-income neighborhoods in the city of Chicago during the fall 2016 U.S Presidential election. Each participant agency committed to registering a minimum of 125 new voters and obtaining pledge cards (commitment to vote) from 125 registered voters in their neighborhood/service catchment area and provide the research team names and addresses of each person mobilized.
This project took place in three stages. In stage 1, staff of the four partner agencies registered new voters. In stage 2, agencies focused on obtaining pledge cards from 125 registered voters (unique subjects from those registered by the organization). In stage 3, the research team sent one of four different, randomly assigned nonpartisan GOTV messages via postcard to each person registered or mobilized by the four partner agencies. The nonpartisan messages emphasized different reasons the person should vote: 1) negative social pressure emphasizing civic duty, 2) one that emphasized voter efficacy, 3) positive social pressure emphasizing social belonging/conformity, 4) a nonpartisan message emphasizing a major policy issue at stake in the election that directly affects the respondent (Jobs and the economy).
The impact of the messages was assessed using voter turnout data from the Illinois Secretary of State. Using these data we were able to match those participants registered and/or mobilized by our participant agencies to see who voted. We use logistic regression to estimate models of voter turnout that accounts for age, sex, prior voting history, and message. We find those mobilized by a nonprofit had a 14% higher rate of turnout than citizens living in the same zip codes who were not mobilized. Moreover, we find that message matters; the policy message had the greatest substantive effect on increasing turnout. This has important implications for nonprofits, who have traditionally refrained from emphasizing policy messages in their GOTV efforts.
[i] LeRoux, Kelly. 2011. Examining Implementation of the National Voter Registration Act by Nonprofit Organizations: An Institutional Explanation. Policy Studies Journal, 39(4): 565-589.
[ii] LeRoux, Kelly and Kelly Krawczyk. 2014. Can Nonprofits Increase Voter Turnout? Findings from an Agency-Based Voter Mobilization Experiment. Nonprofit and Voluntary Sector Quarterly, 43(2): 272-292. http://nvs.sagepub.com/content/43/2/272.full.pdf+html
