In discussing the transition of existing programs for carers and mental health providers into Australia's National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS), a senior Commonwealth bureaucrat remarked, "we rely a lot on market demand... [ view full abstract ]
In discussing the transition of existing programs for carers and mental health providers into Australia's National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS), a senior Commonwealth bureaucrat remarked, "we rely a lot on market demand and market forces to solve all our problems - I hope it works in reality". This remark encapsulates the dilemma facing bureaucrats responsible for managing public sector markets where there is recognition that some form of government regulation is needed, but a high degree of uncertainty about what form this intervention should take. Based on two years of interview data with senior public servants responsible for the implementation of the NDIS, this paper uses systems thinking to identify the causal chains and emergent properties which are shaping market outcomes.
Systems thinking is a branch of complexity theory that attempts to map and analyse the systemic causes that contribute to a given situation. Of particular interest are the assumptions systems thinking makes about causal processes and agency which include the notions of 'feedback' and 'emergent properties' which offer an alternative to the structure and agency debate that has dogged the historical institutionalist literature for many years.
Within complexity theory, the concept of feedback refers to a circular chain of causal factors that acts to reinforce or perpetuate each other. Because the causal chain is circular, one factor can trigger a string of causal connections that can either reinforce or perpetuate the original factor: the change 'feeds back' into itself. The concept of feedback helps us to understand how multiple decisions by different actors, which might all have been made in isolation and with the best intentions for the success of a policy or program, can work together to reinforce certain processes that have unintended consequences for desired policy outcomes. Over time, these multiple decisions can produce a feedback process that drastically changes the outcomes, or 'emergent properties' of a given system or set of policies.
Our analysis reveals a number of different variables and decision points that impact on emergent properties. Of most concern to those responsible for 'market shaping' is the finding that decisions taken by state actors to ensure the scheme's long term sustainability (for example, price controls) are creating market distorting practices which have the potential to limit opportunities for NDIS participants to exercise choice, and decrease equity of access to services for people with disability, both of which are central concerns of the NDIS.
