Energy is a critical feature of modern society, both as an enabler of development and as a cause of major environmental impacts, particularly regarding pollution, land use and climate change. Traditionally, energy planning has... [ view full abstract ]
Energy is a critical feature of modern society, both as an enabler of development and as a cause of major environmental impacts, particularly regarding pollution, land use and climate change. Traditionally, energy planning has been focused mostly on supply management, particularly in the electricity sector. Existing models to manage electricity supply are mainly focused on a single goal (usually financial cost) which they try to optimize, treating other goals (environmental, society) as constraints. Existing models usually treat energy demand as a given quantity, ignoring the consumer’s reaction to two critical: energy price and the evolution of innovation-based technology efficiency. The authors have previously developed a dynamic simulation model for the electricity sector and applied it to the Portuguese case. This model takes explicitly into account the relation between electricity price and resulting electricity demand, and the decisions of final consumers (households, services, industry), who may choose to use more efficient technology to reduce energy costs. Background inputs include historical data from the power plants and the grid, production costs and historic consumption. Key inputs are future policy decisions, including design of financial incentives. The output comprehends several economic, energy, social and environmental indicators, intended for decision support. The model has proved a good tool to understand the evolution of past electricity demand, and also the outcomes of different policy decisions. It may be a good tool for decisions makers and other stakeholders, including consumers, academics and NGO. The past few years have been rich in major changes and challenges in the energy domain: emerging technologies such as photovoltaic and electricity storage are rising rapidly, the economy is growing more electric, the grid paradigm is shifting from dumb and centralized to smart and decentralized, new business models are emerging, the international recognition of the need for transparency is growing, as is the urgency to face climate change. The research in progress, presented in this paper, examines new scenarios for these trends.
Keywords: electricity market, energy modelling, environmental indicators, decision support
4b. Affordable and clean energy
