Modeling the dynamics of harmful algal blooms [HABS], human communities, and policy choices along the Florida Gulf coast: the CHANS project

Coupled human-nature systems (CHANS) involve dynamic interactions between humans and nature, often influenced by and affecting the distinct dynamic characteristics of each compo-nent. We present an overview of an ongoing... [ view full abstract ]

Coupled human-nature systems (CHANS) involve dynamic interactions between humans and nature, often influenced by and affecting the distinct dynamic characteristics of each compo-nent. We present an overview of an ongoing interdisciplinary research program focused on a specific type of system that couples expanding and fluctuating human coastal populations to episodic blooms of toxic marine algae, drawing examples primarily from human interactions with blooms of the toxic harmful algal bloom (HAB) dinoflagellate, Karenia braves, from the eastern Gulf of Mexico (“Florida red tides”). Using extant, but extraordinary, data to specify empirical models, this program of research has focused on characterizing the influence of an-hropogenic sources on K. brevis blooms, assessing the public health and economic impacts of these blooms in an exposure-response framework, and defining the choice of appropriate human policy responses to the hazard. We present examples of the generic aspects of CHANS systems in the context of Florida red tides, and we discuss also some of the challenges involved in compiling and analyzing the relevant data to support our positive and normative analytical efforts.