The Paradox of Civilization: Pre-Institutional Sources of Security and Prosperity

The rise of civilization involved surplus production ("prosperity") and states that could protect surplus ("security"). But the security-prosperity combination posed a paradox: prosperity attracts predation, which discourages... [ view full abstract ]

The rise of civilization involved surplus production ("prosperity") and states that could protect surplus ("security"). But the security-prosperity combination posed a paradox: prosperity attracts predation, which discourages the investments that create prosperity. Drawing from the anthropological and historical literatures, we model the trade-offs facing a proto-state on its path to civilization. We emphasize pre-institutional forces, such as the geographical environment, that shape growth and defense capabilities. We characterize conditions on these capabilities that help escape the civilizational paradox, and illustrate the model by analyzing the rise of civilization in Sumer and Egypt, and the collapse of the Bronze Age.