Illegal Logging in Madagascar: A Spatial Risk Assessment to Inform Community Policing

With over 480 genera and 26 families, Madagascar hosts more endemic plants and animals than any other biodiversity hotspot in the world. Yet deforestation and human disturbance are pushing more species closer to extinction.... [ view full abstract ]

With over 480 genera and 26 families, Madagascar hosts more endemic plants and animals than any other biodiversity hotspot in the world. Yet deforestation and human disturbance are pushing more species closer to extinction. Nearly 94% of all Madagascar’s lemur taxa are listed as threatened by the IUCN Red List, potentially making lemurs the most endangered mammal in the world. Despite an increase in policing efforts coupled with international pressure, illegal logging of rosewood (Dalbergia spp.) and ebony (Diospyros spp.) along the eastern coast of Madagascar is still occurring. Madagascar’s political instability has weakened the effectiveness of security in protected areas and continues to feed the foreign demand of these precious woods. Comprehensive enforcement to stop illegal selective logging throughout Madagascar is unlikely at this time due to lacking monetary support for proper patrols and prevalence of corrupt officials. Consequently, programs have been developed for local villagers to conduct patrols in surrounding areas. Malagasy have a successful history of communal policing, which may be a superior alternative in protecting natural resources today. Previously, priority areas in need of additional enforcement have been identified through nationwide assessments. However, if policing efforts are to be conducted by smaller remote units, risk assessments need to be conducted at a finer spatial scale. To improve the effectiveness of communal policing, we interviewed villagers and natural resource experts to identify areas vulnerable to illegal logging in the surrounding area of the Mananara Nord National Park. Using a case-control design we found trees near waterways, protected areas, and the coastline to be significantly more vulnerable to logging. Hydrological mapping tools were utilized to model the route a log would most likely travel to merchant vessels along the eastern coast. Forest patch hotspots most susceptible to logging and pinch points in the supply chain were identified to inform village patrol routes and increase patrol networks in new priority areas.