State Exchanges under the Affordable Care Act: Political or Economic Determinants?

This investigation estimates a probit model of the determinants related to the establishment of State exchanges under the Affordable Care Act. We find that “political” factors dominate the explanation of whether States... [ view full abstract ]

This investigation estimates a probit model of the determinants related to the establishment of State exchanges under the Affordable Care Act. We find that “political” factors dominate the explanation of whether States set up exchanges, or relied on the “Federal Facilitated” marketplace. The model predicts correctly in 44 of 50 cases, based on a relatively small number of determinants. Those determinants are primarily political.