(62) Performance Indicators Delineating the Most Successful ATP Players' and Earnings

Tennis is a complex game with numerous match determining variables. Previous research tends to examine contributing factors to determine match outcomes for betting purposes, but this study provides the crucial performance... [ view full abstract ]

Tennis is a complex game with numerous match determining variables. Previous research tends to examine contributing factors to determine match outcomes for betting purposes, but this study provides the crucial performance indicators, for each court surface, that contribute to male tennis players’ annual tournament earnings. The model draws in multiple variables from previous literature including the player’s age, court surface, break points converted, and service due their strong, statistically significant influence on a match’s outcome. By determining the most influential performance indicators to a player’s outcome, players can direct more focus to those areas to increase their earnings. The study uses the match statistics of the Top 20 ATP players’ career Grand Slam matches as of December 2017 and each of their annual earnings for the past 6 years. A probit model is used to determine the marginal effects to determine the role of specific variables in predicting match outcomes for any Grand Slam. Then, an OLS regression was used to determine the estimates of the ATP player’s annual earnings for the performance indicators of each Grand Slam. I find that break points converted, the number of double faults hit, their opponent’s first and second serve percentage, and the player’s service percentage all have a statistical significant effect on player’s match outcome and their annual tournament earnings.