The Trump Effect: Provocative Statements' Impacts on Voter Psychology (35 min)

Building on previous studies that have focused on how citizens weigh ideology and electability when deciding between candidates, this research investigated the effect of provocative statements on voter psychology. In an... [ view full abstract ]

Building on previous studies that have focused on how citizens weigh ideology and electability when deciding between candidates, this research investigated the effect of provocative statements on voter psychology. In an experimental setting, likely voters were primed with issue-based questions. The control group was presented with issue questions phrased neutrally, while the treatment group was exposed to issue questions containing provocative language. Both groups were then asked about their various voting preferences, such as weighing a candidate’s ideology and electability. We distributed cards with links to the surveys at 25 campaign events in New Hampshire during the four weeks leading up to the New Hampshire primary on February 9th yielding 470 responses. This survey experiment was then replicated online (n=1,002) to validate initial findings. Our preliminary conclusions show that provocative statements have a significant effect on voter psychology. However, this effect disappears closer to the day of the primary. Continued research aims to isolate specific reasons to explain why the effect of the treatment diminished leading up to election day.