The Effect of China's One-Child Policy on Desired Fertility

Since the early 1970s, China's fertility rate has fallen from an average of six children per woman to fewer than two. Although couples are having fewer children, it is less clear whether fertility preferences have accompanied... [ view full abstract ]

Since the early 1970s, China's fertility rate has fallen from an average of six children per woman to fewer than two. Although couples are having fewer children, it is less clear whether fertility preferences have accompanied this transition. With the establishment of the one-child policy, the Chinese state encouraged, and oftentimes coerced, couples to limit their number of children. The state wanted to change couple’s fertility behavior but also inculcate them with the belief that ‘one child is best.’ Have the state’s efforts inspired a change in fertility preferences or have they merely affected behavior? More specifically, to what extent has the one-child policy, rather than economic development, shaped families preferences toward their ideal number of children? Using panel data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey, I will empirically measure the effect of the one-child policy on desired fertility. I will exploit the differential policy treatment between Han and non-Han Chinese and will use a difference-in-difference model to estimate how increasing the fine on additional births influenced desired fertility amongst Han and non-Han people. This research will shed light on the roles that China’s cultural, social, economic, and political spheres have had in implementing and enforcing the one-child policy.