Who's Next? Predicting and Understanding the Islamic State's Overseas Expansions

The jihadi organization that calls itself the Islamic State has dominated international headlines for the past two years, in part because of how it has spread its tentacles around the globe. From its base in Syria and Iraq,... [ view full abstract ]

The jihadi organization that calls itself the Islamic State has dominated international headlines for the past two years, in part because of how it has spread its tentacles around the globe. From its base in Syria and Iraq, formal branches of the organization have popped up in more than a dozen countries across Africa, the Middle East, and Asia, alarming policymakers around the world. Surprisingly, however, no one has systematically studied how the Islamic State chooses where to expand. This research uses statistical analysis and case studies to understand how the Islamic State chooses where to locate its overseas branches. I argue that countries with a fragmented jihadi landscape are more likely to host an ISIS affiliate than those where a single jihadi group predominates.