Measuring the Impact of Gentrification on Individual and Aggregate Voting Behavior in Chicago and Boston Municipal Elections

My study will seek to further illuminate the effect that gentrification has on voting behavior in municipal elections. Gentrification, as defined by a 2001 Brookings Institute Study, is “the process by which higher income... [ view full abstract ]

My study will seek to further illuminate the effect that gentrification has on voting behavior in municipal elections. Gentrification, as defined by a 2001 Brookings Institute Study, is “the process by which higher income households displace lower income residents of a neighborhood, changing the essential character and flavor of that neighborhood” (Kennedy & Leonard, 2001). The changing of the “character and flavor” of a neighborhood involves a number of different nuanced changes that each individually effect voting behavior, both in terms of turnout and preferences. Those changes can be broken down into two different categories: contextual effects and demographic shifts. Contextual effects change the way individuals behave, and are the environmental impacts of the changing community dynamics. For instance, how living in a multi-racial community as opposed to a racially homogenous one might influence an individual. Alternatively, changes due to gentrification seen at the neighborhood level and could be simply reflective of differing preferences and voting behaviors between the “gentrifiers” and the original residents of the community. Typically, gentrifiers are more likely to be white, educated, higher earning, and in many cases, younger. All of these demographic shifts have the potential to significantly alter the makeup of communities. The aim of my study is to distinguish the differences between these effects, and attempt to measure their magnitude on changes in individual voting behavior, holding other effects constant. By examining census data and recent elections in Boston and Chicago, I will attempt to elucidate these questions.