To what extent does primary and secondary school access and learning determine progression to higher education?: Evidence from South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa

Higher education is vital for sustainable economic growth and poverty reduction. Despite these benefits, it was neglected in the MDGs and EFA goals. This is likely to change, as the post-2015 goals place emphasis on equality... [ view full abstract ]

Higher education is vital for sustainable economic growth and poverty reduction. Despite these benefits, it was neglected in the MDGs and EFA goals. This is likely to change, as the post-2015 goals place emphasis on equality of access to higher education. In this paper, we analyse evidence from Demographic and Health Surveys in around 30 developing countries in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia to explore how primary and secondary education relates to progression in higher education for different wealth and gender groups. This analysis will be further enhanced by analysis of Young Lives data on learning in four countries: Ethiopia, Peru, India and Vietnam.

Our analysis of the DHS data suggests wide wealth gaps that are accompanied in most cases by significant gender disparities, and slow growth that has not mitigated these differences across time. We also analyse the Young Lives data to derive the potential for learning-driven progression to higher education according to wealth and gender. By comparing these two sets of results, we aim to provide a macro-level analysis of the potential for higher education growth for all groups in relation to learning outcomes in primary and secondary education.

Based on this analysis, the paper proposes indicators for monitoring progress for marginalised groups in access and learning from primary to higher education such that post-2015 goals ensure no one is left behind.