Modeling applications for enhancing raccoon rabies control: the road to elimination

Rabies is an ancient viral disease that significantly impacts human and animal health throughout the world. In the developing parts of the world, dogs represent the highest risk of rabies infection to people, livestock, and... [ view full abstract ]

Rabies is an ancient viral disease that significantly impacts human and animal health throughout the world. In the developing parts of the world, dogs represent the highest risk of rabies infection to people, livestock, and other animals. However, in North America, where several rabies virus variants currently circulate in wildlife, human contact with the raccoon rabies variant leads to the highest per capita population administration of post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) annually. Previous rabies variant elimination in raccoons (Canada), foxes (Europe) and dogs and coyotes (United States), demonstrates that elimination of the raccoon variant from the eastern United States is feasible, given an understanding of rabies control costs and benefits and the availability of proper tools. Also critical is a cooperatively-produced strategic plan that emphasizes collaborative rabies management among agencies and organizations at the landscape scale. Common management strategies, alone or as part of an integrated approach, include: oral rabies vaccination (ORV), trap-vaccinate-release (TVR), and local population reduction. In complement, mathematical and statistical modeling approaches can guide intervention planning, such as through contact networks, circuit theory, individual-based modeling, and others can be used to better understand and predict rabies dynamics through simulated interactions among the host, virus, environment and strategy. Information gleaned through this ecological lens can then be further evaluated by economics teams to produce a management plan that balances the ecological needs and financial resources. By reviewing the management and modeling strategies that are currently used, or have been used in the past, we are working toward building a foundational framework to aid in the development of raccoon rabies virus elimination strategies.