Reducing Uncertainty through Experimental Design and Appropriate Analysis: Lessons Learned through Post-EIA Ornithological Monitoring of Offshore Wind Developments in the UK

The offshore wind industry in the UK is maturing and as a result, UK practitioners have accumulated a wealth of experience in both ornithological site characterisation and impact assessment, and design of post-EIA monitoring... [ view full abstract ]

The offshore wind industry in the UK is maturing and as a result, UK practitioners have accumulated a wealth of experience in both ornithological site characterisation and impact assessment, and design of post-EIA monitoring programs promoting a better understanding of the responses of seabirds to offshore wind developments. The accuracy of conclusions drawn from these is subject to uncertainties arising from data collection, modelling approach and presentation of findings, as well as stakeholder perspectives and biases. In the UK, due to the precautionary nature of decisions made when permitting projects, it is beneficial to design post construction monitoring to generate data on impacts in order to minimise uncertainty where possible. This enables the generation of reliable, realistic estimates of impact rather than relying on worst case scenario approaches. In a North American context, careful design of monitoring programs for offshore wind developments will enable assessment of project compliance and inform future permitting decisions.
Appropriate experimental design is a key driver in reducing uncertainty associated with impact assessment. Yet too often, ornithological surveys are carried out with little regard for the purpose of the surveys and the types of analysis that will need to be carried out. In the recent past, within delivery of UK offshore Rounds 1 and 2, it has been common for generic surveys to be carried out with little thought as to the key receptors of interest and how data collection could be optimised to provide valuable data for these. This is particularly surprising during the construction and operational phases, when key issues and species have been identified and baseline data are available to inform the planning and execution of monitoring and assessment.
Based on our extensive experience, we recommend a question-driven approach to data collection and analysis for post-permit ornithological impact assessment. We advocate that site-specific information and identification of appropriate analysis methodology be used to optimise survey methodology in order to address specific concerns. This approach allows targeted data collection that minimises uncertainties associated with impact assessment, providing a framework within which impacts can be assessed as accurately as possible, facilitating demonstration of project compliance. In addition, this framework will generate data that can contribute to our global understanding of the impacts of offshore wind farms on birds, further reducing sources of uncertainty for future, or life extension of existing developments. This is the approach being developed for the delivery of post construction monitoring regimes for ornithological impacts of recently permitted, 1GW+ offshore projects within the UK.
In this poster, we present this framework, with the aid of case studies demonstrating good practise approaches and tools used in the UK to develop and assess the feasibility of proposed monitoring programs and inform experimental design for assessment of realised impacts at offshore wind farm sites. We demonstrate that careful planning can allow targeted data collection, minimising uncertainty associated with predictions and increasing stakeholder confidence in findings.