Scientists say we must move from the coast, but few institutions promote moving

Climate change modelers and coastal scientists predict that many coastlines will be abandoned as sea levels rise and as severe storms become more frequent. How coastal retreat would happen at a large scale is unclear. There is... [ view full abstract ]

Climate change modelers and coastal scientists predict that many coastlines will be abandoned as sea levels rise and as severe storms become more frequent. How coastal retreat would happen at a large scale is unclear. There is no coherent global framework or set of practices for moving from the coast. We analyze how people around the world are already moving and which spatial scales they are using to organize their plans. People use scale to make moral or political claims about who is responsible for a problem, in ways that may or may not use scientific rationales. Cases were gathered from academic research, government and nongovernmental reports, news media, and climate adaptation coalitions (e.g., 100 Resilient Cities). In analyzing dozens of cases, we find that few moves have been completed, that abandoned sites are small, and that most projects are in rural sites. The multiscale problem of climate adaptation has inspired responses mostly at small scales, and many cases involve unplanned emergency retreat after severe disasters. Migration is decided mostly at the household scale and is the strategy that attracts the least support from governments or other larger-scale institutions. Group moving strategies are organized mostly at neighborhood or community scales through ad hoc arrangements, and only some of these projects have gotten support from larger-scale institutions. Moving strategies organized at small scales may reflect site-specific needs and cultures, but such projects do not spread the costs to others who benefit from coastal development and do not access the resources needed to treat a site within its larger social and ecological contexts. Messaging and planning for the moving strategy involves a shift from scientists as the authorities on climate change to institutions that manage land and members of the public, two sets of institutions that do not ordinarily work together. People making decisions about coastal land management need access to understandable and tailored scientific information about regional sea level rise and regional coastal dynamics. Better integrating science into land management decisions can help avoid emergency migration or group retreat by highlighting which sites are most hazardous and are changing most quickly.