Quantification of Multi Risk Scenarios Subjected to Extreme Weather Events

Changes in the likelihood and severity of extreme weather events and climate-related disasters can result in the failure of critical infrastructure (CI) elements and networks. A Quantitative risk assessment of such failures is... [ view full abstract ]

Changes in the likelihood and severity of extreme weather events and climate-related disasters can result in the failure of critical infrastructure (CI) elements and networks. A Quantitative risk assessment of such failures is a core part of risk management protocols. In the RAIN project, funded by 7th Framework Programme, a systematic risk analysis framework is being developed which quantifies risks due to extreme events by explicitly considering the impacts of extreme weather events on critical infrastructure. In this paper, an overview of developed advanced risk assessment procedure quantifying multi-mode risks and the techniques required to assess the interaction between different hazardous events and various critical infrastructure systems is provided. In this study it is assumed that multi-risk scenarios refer to two main components: a. multi-hazard (i.e. the potential for one or more secondary hazard triggered a by primary hazard event) and b. multi-vulnerability (i.e., potential for failure propagation in critical infrastructure network(s)) scenarios. Descriptions of various multi-hazard and multi-vulnerability scenarios are provided and the approach required to quantify risk arising from each scenario is outlined and the application is illustrated for flash flooding case study in North of Italy.