Collaborative study on the estimation of EES-values / Kollaborative Studie zur Schätzung von EES-Werten

It is common practice for accident reconstructionists to present a subjective expert opinion on the amount of deformation, in the form of an EES-value. EVU-NL allowed their members to "calibrate" their opinions in... [ view full abstract ]

It is common practice for accident reconstructionists to present a subjective expert opinion on the amount of deformation, in the form of an EES-value. EVU-NL allowed their members to "calibrate" their opinions in two anonymous collaborative exercises. We will explain the exercise design, as a starting point for other EVU-groups, and we will present the results.

The first exercise ran in 2012, consisted of 14 cases and had 25 participants. The second exercise ran in 2014, had 15 cases and 49 participants. Participants were confronted with unpublished EES crash tests by... [ view full abstract ]

The first exercise ran in 2012, consisted of 14 cases and had 25 participants. The second exercise ran in 2014, had 15 cases and 49 participants. Participants were confronted with unpublished EES crash tests by Crashtest-service.com. Participants had to present an estimate of the EES-value, both as a point value (“best guess”) and as a confidence interval. In the first exercise, participants were instructed to choose the confidence interval so that they expected that 95% of their estimated intervals would include the proper EES-value. This was changed to 90% for the second exercise. Participants learned the proper EES-value of the previous test before each new test, in order to be able to ‘calibrate’ their estimations.