Strategic management for the 'unknown-unknown'; public organizations planning for deep uncertainty and disruption

Many public organizations are facing deep uncertainties that they on the one hand recognize and want to deal with, while on the other hand are impossible to predict or foresee. This creates a dilemma for public management and... [ view full abstract ]

Many public organizations are facing deep uncertainties that they on the one hand recognize and want to deal with, while on the other hand are impossible to predict or foresee. This creates a dilemma for public management and governance; public managers want to be prepared, but are uncertain about what to prepare for. They want to take multiple futures into account, but have problems with the variety of possible futures and the wide array of options. Moreover, the deep uncertainty as coined by Walker et al (2001) implies that there are unknown-unknowns that cannot be foreseen or even imagined, even though it is certain that they will at some point emerge to disrupt the organization and its environment.

In this paper we use data from a series of qualitative interviews with public managers who are actively and deliberately preparing for deep uncertainty, to see how they act on three areas of anticipation; 1. What are their strategies for information gathering about disruptive trends and deep uncertainties; 2. What are their strategies to foster a culture of alertness and ‘readiness’ for disruption and uncertainty; 3. What are their strategies by managers to organize for deep uncertainty and unknown-unknowns?

Besides an empirical overview of the more traditional strategies for dealing with deep uncertainty this paper also provides evidence of new and emerging strategies for dealing with deep uncertainties that are currently applied by public managers. In our conclusion and reflection, we discuss what these strategies mean for traditional views on strategic management and public management measures and techniques.