Predicting climate change impacts on vulnerable small farmers in South Africa's Eastern Cape

South Africa’s Eastern Cape province has extremely high levels of poverty, partly due to the highly variable rainfall; rainfed farming systems are notoriously risky due to poor rainfall distribution, and this results in... [ view full abstract ]

South Africa’s Eastern Cape province has extremely high levels of poverty, partly due to the highly variable rainfall; rainfed farming systems are notoriously risky due to poor rainfall distribution, and this results in wide-spread food insecurity. Two magisterial districts (Sarah Baartman near Port Elizabeth and Amathole near East London) were selected, and large variability of rainfall distribution was noted.  Factors implicated in food insecurity were analysed including resilience, biodiversity and productivity, and five climate prediction models were examined to assess their relevance in supporting small scale farmers. Sensitivity of the models to variable data input was assessed.  Given that rainfed crop production requires 500 mm of rain during the growing season, that all of the models examined were highly sensitive to variations in rainfall and that rainfall in the sub-districts varies from year to year between 200 and 900 mm per annum, it was concluded that none of the climate change models available would be useful in the Eastern Cape.  It was rather decided to use existing rainfall data as an initial predictor of likely drought patterns, as these are already a severe constraint on rainfed crop production.  Strategies to assist vulnerable farmers should therefore focus on small livestock production, home gardens with rainwater harvesting and soil management systems which improve soil water holding capacity, such as organic farming and conservation agriculture.

Keywords: climate change; drought prediction; plant available water; food insecurity, water use efficiency.