Hydrologic model for predicting drought hazard under Climate Change scenarios

Nowadays climate change is one of the main issues human beings face. Its consequences have been reflected on the modification of recurrent patterns of meteorological existing phenomena in the form of an increasing humidity... [ view full abstract ]

Nowadays climate change is one of the main issues human beings face. Its consequences have been reflected on the modification of recurrent patterns of meteorological existing phenomena in the form of an increasing humidity demand by the atmosphere, due to the rise of superficial earth temperature. One of those phenomena, droughts, have been presenting on a more prolonged way and with heavier impacts on different areas such as agriculture, the ecosystems, and water reservoirs, among others. In consequence, a need has surged to develop tools able to predict the behavior of this hazard, thus take the necessary measures in order to reduce the vulnerability of the exposed elements in anticipation of a drought event. This project proposes a methodology in relation with the Latin-American setting based on the most recent probabilistic and geographical system information developments in the subject of drought hazard prediction. The proposal consists in fitting probabilistic curves to the characteristics of drought events: severity define as the total impact of the anomaly, duration as the total extent and intensity as the maximum impact. These three characteristics are derived by the employment of indexes, which are obtained from meteorological data such as precipitation and temperature of the area of interest. From this point, the procedure lies in the use of the fit probabilistic curves with the aim of calculating the frequency and the numerical values of the different drought characteristics; in addition of curves and maps that are tools with the ability of summarize in a visual way all the stochastic information of the hazard in the study location. In this way, the result is a model with the ability of showing in a graphical and numerical manner the expected behavior of future events; thereby decision makers could take actions on this aspect by proposing ways to prevent and mitigate the associated damages. The methodology was tested and ratified in a South American basin. For the tested region the conclusions forecast more extensive drought events with lower intensities. In a general aspect, the implemented process and the application yielded satisfactory results which shown the multiple applications that the model can blend for decision making and a subsequent risk analysis. This type of analysis implies a more inclusive government by making easier and possible to decide the target zones that require special attention. This implies a more equitable society in which all regions are better prepared to the future upcoming threats.

Keywords: Drought, Methodology, Forecasting, Decision, Hazard