Using Energy Efficiency to Reduce Residential Energy Demand Under Climate Change

Climate change could significantly alter consumer demand for energy in the residential sector, both in the timing and quantity of energy demand, as changing temperatures alter heating and cooling loads of buildings. Warming... [ view full abstract ]

Climate change could significantly alter consumer demand for energy in the residential sector, both in the timing and quantity of energy demand, as changing temperatures alter heating and cooling loads of buildings. Warming climates could also lead to the increased adoption and use of cooling technologies, resulting in higher electricity demand.  We develop an assessment of changing residential energy demand in Los Angeles County, California, under several climate change temperature projection models and with a growing population.  We subsequently investigate the potential for energy efficient technologies to offset some of the increased demand. We calibrate archetypal residential building energy simulation models with actual electricity demand data by neighborhood, accounting for difference in building materials and appliances.  Under temperature increases, we find that without policy intervention, residential electricity demand might increases as much as 41-87% (depending on the climate model) between 2020 and 2060.  Aggressive policies aimed at upgrading HVAC and appliances, however, could result in increases as low as 28%, potentially avoiding the installation of some new generation capacity. This aggressive intervention scenario also accounts for increased electrification of building technologies (e.g. water and space heating) as well as population growth of nearly 20%.  Furthermore, most of these efficiency upgrades are cost-saving to the homeowner.  We therefore recommend aggressive energy efficiency measures, in combination with investment in low-carbon generation sources and distributed generation, to mitigate impacts from projected increases in LAC's residential energy demand.