Analyzing potential markets for Autonomous Vehicles using time-use data

Autonomous Vehicles (AV) will have enormous economic, environmental and social implications. In this work, the American Time Use Survey (ATUS) is used to characterize potential AV markets. The approach is to identify the... [ view full abstract ]

Autonomous Vehicles (AV) will have enormous economic, environmental and social implications. In this work, the American Time Use Survey (ATUS) is used to characterize potential AV markets. The approach is to identify the sub-groups of the traveling population likely to benefit from AV and compare the activity patterns of these groups with an otherwise similar group. One sub-group identified is driving workers with particularly long total travel times (upper 20%), referred to as “heavy auto travellers”. This group numbers 19 million and travels approximately 1.6 hours more per day on workdays than other workers. For car-commuting professionals, activities traded off for this additional travel time are, on average, 30 minutes of work, 29 minutes of sleep, and 30 minutes of television watching.  Long public transit riders show a similar pattern. Work, sleep and video functionalities of AV are presumably in high demand by this group. Another sub-population identified is elderly retired people. The retired population aged > 75 years numbers 16 million and travels 14 minutes less per day than retirees aged 60-75. The main activity corresponding to this reduced travel is 7 minutes per day less shopping and 8 minutes per day socializing. The environmental implications of AV are complex, combining multiple uncertain factors such as efficiency improvements, changes in travel demand and potential for vehicle sharing. This work offers a qualitative insight: adoption of AV will induce lifestyle changes affecting energy use in non-vehicle sectors. For example, older seniors using AV to do more shopping would induce energy demand in the retail sector.