The Effects of Expanded Refrigeration on Food Waste in the Developing World

Increased refrigeration has major sustainability implications for the global food system. As the global refrigerated supply chain, or “cold chain,” expands into areas of the developing world, it will influence food waste... [ view full abstract ]

Increased refrigeration has major sustainability implications for the global food system. As the global refrigerated supply chain, or “cold chain,” expands into areas of the developing world, it will influence food waste rates, diets, and food system emissions as a whole. It is essential to view refrigeration from a systems perspective, capturing not only its direct environmental impacts, but effects on other elements of sustainability. The role of the cold chain is a critical yet relatively unexplored dimension of the food-energy-water nexus.

This research simulates the introduction of the cold chain into a developing food system and models the change in system food waste emissions by food type. The analysis is conducted in two parts, the first looking at upstream (pre-retail) effects, and the other focusing on retail and consumer-level changes. Changes in food waste emissions for the upstream and downstream portions of the food supply chain are modeled with complementary methods, but with the analysis applied to the downstream portion of the supply chain capturing greater potential variance in retailer and consumer behavior.

Changes in upstream food waste emissions from the introduction of the cold chain are examined by simulating its introduction in Sub-Saharan Africa and China. Sub-Saharan Africa is used to construct the model of the cold chain’s effects as the properties of this region serve as an effective baseline scenario for a food system where there is limited cold chain diffusion. This model is then refined using the case study of China, where refrigerated supply chains are present but still expanding. This analysis evaluates the influence of spoilage rates, demand for food types, and changes in the embodied emissions by food type. The relative influence of these factors on increases or decreases in the waste emissions for each food type are identified and presented.

The downstream portion of the food supply chain is examined by coupling the structure of the upstream model with probabilistic modeling of consumer and retailer behavior. This modeling approach provides the opportunity to capture greater variance in consumer and retailer properties and their decision-making. Employing a similar structure as a randomized-control study, neighborhoods in a developing food system are populated with agents, with some neighborhoods receiving a “treatment” for the cold chain and others remaining as controls, with their previous food supply chain. The difference in waste, behavior, and emissions between the treatment and control neighborhoods is compared, and the role of the cold chain examined. The case-study for building this portion of the model is the Chinese food system, selected based on data availability. This model captures changes in the same factors identified upstream, but with a greater ability to incorporate changes in diet, shopping patterns, as well as other consumer and retailer choices.

The cold chain will bring substantial changes in developing food systems, influencing everything from spoilage rates to consumer diets. Prospectively identifying key drivers of environmental impacts is essential to informing effective policies and interventions which lead to the most sustainable outcomes.