How to Model Marginal Production in Life Cycle Assessment?: A Case Study of Potato Production in the U.S.
Yuwei Qin
University of California, Santa Barbara
Yuwei Qin is a third-year PhD student in the Bren School of Environmental Science & Management at the University of California, Santa Barbara, where she earned her master’s degree in Environmental Science and Management. She also has a B.S. in Environmental Policy and Management with an emphasis on Environmental Economics at the Ohio State University. Yuwei studies Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) with an emphasis in assessing uncertainty of LCA results and improving reliability of LCA applications. She is currently working on an environmental and health impact-predicting tool for new chemicals, called Chemical Life Cycle Collaborate (CLiCC), and mainly focusing on the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the results. She previous research involves the uncertainty quantification of Ecoinvent data (the world largest LCA database) and the determination of probability distribution of inventory data.
Abstract
Understanding marginal production is an important step toward modeling the life cycle environmental consequences of changes in a production system. In this study, we demonstrate how marginal production... [ view full abstract ]
Understanding marginal production is an important step toward modeling the life cycle environmental consequences of changes in a production system. In this study, we demonstrate how marginal production calculation can be estimated using an optimization technique based on spatially explicit multi-producer, multi-consumer case. We use a case study of marginal potato production in response to a large demand increase. First, the magnitude of change is determined, which in our case is the changes in the demand of potato to meet the healthier diet recommendation by USDA. Second, we build a model that location-specific production technologies, constraints, and the level of additional demand are specified. For our case study, we collected state-by-state data on land area suitable for potato cultivation, yield, cost of potato production, irrigation water use, and interstate transportation costs. Third, we estimate the potential response by the system under different behavioral assumptions in the form of objective functions including 1) cost minimization, and 2) distance minimization. Our results show that additional production of potato may look very differently from the current average potato production. Bluewater use per ton of crop for irrigation due to increased demand is significantly lower in the cost minimization, local food, and high water price scenarios compared to the average production scenario.
The results indicate that different environmental outcomes would be possible depending on how economic constraints, social factors, and policy measures play out. Therefore, a ‘snapshot’ of the current economic system as portrayed in attributional LCA studies falls short of addressing the question of dietary shift and supporting decision making. Our study highlights the importance of scenario analysis as a way of understanding the different pathways through which a decision may impact the economy and the environment. Scenario analysis also opens the door to the possibility of policy interventions.
Authors
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Yuwei Qin
(University of California, Santa Barbara)
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Yi Yang
(CSRA Inc.)
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Stefano Cucurachi
(University of California, Santa Barbara)
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Joseph Bergesen
(University of California, Santa Barbara)
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Sangwon Suh
(University of California, Santa Barbara)
Topic Areas
• Life cycle sustainability assessment , • Advances in methods (e.g., life cycle assessment, social impact assessment, resilience a , • Sustainable consumption and production
Session
MS-13 » LCA new developments 2 (14:00 - Monday, 26th June, Room D)
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