The generalized methodology for risk evaluation based on fuzzy logic and computing with words

This presentation will demonstrate the joint efforts of social scientists and computer scientists to develop a methodology for risk evaluation using fuzzy logic and computing with words (CWW) that could be applicable for the... [ view full abstract ]

This presentation will demonstrate the joint efforts of social scientists and computer scientists to develop a methodology for risk evaluation using fuzzy logic and computing with words (CWW) that could be applicable for the analysis of different socio-technical risks. Risk evaluation as one of the elements of risk governance requires interdisciplinary effort and knowledge because it should involve expertise that is contextual regarding the specific risks and also ICT tools that use generalized approach.
Our methodology takes the approach that risk is defined as a measureable level of uncertainty of the action results. A measurable level of risk can be calculated depending on efforts, possible positive results (opportunities), possible negative results (threats), and the level of uncertainty. FuccyTech software is used for risk evaluation which is based on fuzzy logic and computing with words. The process of risk evaluation includes several steps: 1) the analysis of causes and consequences of the phenomenon under study (experts provide with contextual and situational analysis of the phenomenon under study); 2) the risk evaluation of the phenomenon (the experts of the specific topic verbalize variables for risk evaluation; decision – makers are modeling risk using FuzzyTech software)
The result of risk evaluation is the dynamic modeling of the level of anticipated risk, provided as 3D models. User of this program is provided with the possibility to adjust and constantly renew the model of risk evaluation reflecting the changes in determining factors.
The proposed methodology was tested for the analysis of possible GMO risks in Lithuania. Experts of macroeconomics, law and environmental engineering provided with their evaluations of possible treats, opportunities, efforts and the level of uncertainties in the case of GMO. The resulting outcome is the dynamic models of GMO risk evaluation. The presentation will explore the results of pilot testing that revealed the evaluations of GMO risk are diverse across the fields of experts. The challenge of this methodology is to work out the procedure on how to combine the risk evaluations of experts from different fields into one model.
This work is supported by KTU grant (2015) “Generalized Methodology for Sociotechnical Risks Governance and Assumptions for the Establishment of RISK-LAB in KTU” (RISK-LAB).