Understanding responses to evolving emergencies: some applications of Boyd's Observation-Orientation-Decision-Action loop model to the behavior of decision-makers in natural disasters under conditions of uncertainty and incomplete understanding

Most natural disasters develop over timescales of minutes to months, and so provide time for the people affected by them to make multiple decisions as the unfolding disaster evolves and their understanding of what is happening... [ view full abstract ]

Most natural disasters develop over timescales of minutes to months, and so provide time for the people affected by them to make multiple decisions as the unfolding disaster evolves and their understanding of what is happening evolves along with it. In contrast, many current models of the psychology of decision-making tend to focus on single decisions and consider successive decisions only in experimental settings where the input of information is controlled by the experimenter. Therefore, they may lead us to underestimate the significance of complex, emergent behaviours in natural disaster situations. An exception to this rule is Boyd’s Observation-Orientation-Decision-Action (OODA) loop model, hitherto applied in conflict situations such as war and business management. Boyd emphasizes that successive cycles through this loop, and cycles within stages of the loop (especially the key Orientation stage) produce feedbacks. The decision-maker’s orientations (context-specific interpretations of the significance of observations for the decision-maker), decisions and actions all influence subsequent collection and selection of observations with effects that propagate through their subsequent OODA cycles.

Understanding decision-makers’ responses to disaster therefore requires analysis of their entire behavior and understanding from the pre-disaster period and through the whole disaster. We illustrate this with examples that range from video records and testimonies of the ordinary individuals who are the key decision-makers in tsunami disasters, through accounts provided by professional emergency responders, to case studies of disaster management teams operating during complex volcanic eruptions. Two themes emerge from these cases. The first is the malign influence of ill-founded perceptions of the efficiency of permanent disaster mitigation structures, rooted in a desire to create certainty even when it cannot be supported by available information. The second is the importance of prior education and training in increasing the effectiveness of decision-making even when knowledge of the particular emergency in which it is taking place is uncertain and incomplete, not least in ensuring that decision-makers are enabled to recognize that the situation is not developing in accordance with their expectations.

Symposium title: The societal side of early warning and evacuation decisions