RAPID-N: Rapid natech risk assessment and mapping framework

The impact of natural hazards on industrial installations that process or store hazardous materials can cause fires, explosions and toxic releases. These so-called "natech" accidents have often had significant social,... [ view full abstract ]

The impact of natural hazards on industrial installations that process or store hazardous materials can cause fires, explosions and toxic releases. These so-called "natech" accidents have often had significant social, environmental and economic impacts. For example, in 2011 the Tohoku earthquake and tsunami led to one of the worst nuclear accidents in human history. Additionally, six refineries suffered severe damage effectively shutting in over 30% of Japan's refining capacity. Similarly, in 2005 Hurricanes Katrina and Rita wreaked havoc on the US on- and offshore oil and gas infrastructure, which led to enormous damage and a hike in global oil prices. In Europe, recent flooding events caused significant damage to industrial facilities located in the flood zones.

For the mitigation of natech risk, authorities need to identify natech prone areas in a systematic manner. In order to facilitate probabilistic natech risk mapping, a natural hazard-independent, unified risk assessment methodology was developed that is based on the estimation of on-site natural hazard parameters at the industry site, determination of natural hazard-related damage probabilities of industrial units, and assessment of probability and severity of possibly triggered loss-of-containment events involving hazardous materials. The methodology was implemented in a software framework called RAPID-N, which allows rapid local and regional natech risk assessment and mapping with minimal data input. The framework features innovative data estimation methods to complete missing data and allows generation of case-specific consequence models dynamically according to data availability. As proof of concept, the framework provides a complete implementation of the U.S. EPA's RMP Guidance for Offsite Consequence Analysis methodology to perform natech consequence analysis and it includes comprehensive data for earthquakes. It is readily extendable to other natural hazards and different risk assessment methods, as models equations can be added or substituted with alternatives by the users easily. Results are presented as summary reports and interactive risk maps, which can be used for land-use and emergency planning purposes by using scenario hazards, or for rapid natech consequence assessment following actual disasters.

In this presentation, the natech risk assessment methodology of RAPID-N will be discussed after a short introduction to the important characteristics of natech events. The features of the framework will be demonstrated and results of example case-studies will be shown.