An evaluation of qualitative risk estimation tools

Qualitative risk estimation methods, tools and techniques are extensively used, as part of risk assessment, across many different industrial sectors, often to satisfy health and safety legislation such as the Management of... [ view full abstract ]

Qualitative risk estimation methods, tools and techniques are extensively used, as part of risk assessment, across many different industrial sectors, often to satisfy health and safety legislation such as the Management of Health and Safety at Work Regulations, 1999. When used properly they inform decisions on risk reduction measures and aid prioritization of their implementation. There are several fundamental methods for qualitative risk estimation, such as matrices and graphs and many different and diverse tools. One study [1] identified and classified 108 distinct tools.

The availability of such a large number of tools could make it difficult for people to choose which to use and lead to diversity in estimates of risk. This could lead to poor decisions by users about the need for and adequacy of measures for risk reduction.

This presentation will describe the design and results of a project to evaluate how qualitative risk estimation tools work and perform, which explored:
• the extent to which different tools calculate essentially the same risk when the same input values or information are used;
• how well different tools distinguish between different risks; and
• whether they rank them in the same order as one another.

This will include the multi-disciplinary approach taken involving input from engineers, psychologists and statisticians.

Furthermore, the challenges and limitations will be explained of designing a study that was able to compare tools that are varied in their inputs, structure and outputs.

It is hoped that by sharing our findings, along with the raw data generated during the project, it will be possible to obtain different perspectives and insights from users of such tools and other researchers in the field.

© British Crown copyright (2016) This publication and the work it describes was co-funded by the Health and Safety Executive (HSE) and the Institut de recherche Robert-Sauvé en santé et en sécurité du travail (IRSST). Its contents, including any opinions and/or conclusions expressed, are those of the authors alone and do not necessarily reflect HSE or IRSST policy.

[1] Paques, J-J and Gauthier, F. 2007. Analysis and Classification of the Tools for Assessing the Risks Associated with Industrial Machines. Journal of Occupational Safety and Ergonomics Vol.13 No.2, pp173-187.