The feeling of tsunami risk: social acceptance of unnecessary evacuation

Although the role of emotion in risk perceptions and decisions has received much research attention, relatively few studies have examined the role of intense fear in crisis situations. Using new quantitative (n=800) and... [ view full abstract ]

Although the role of emotion in risk perceptions and decisions has received much research attention, relatively few studies have examined the role of intense fear in crisis situations. Using new quantitative (n=800) and qualitative evidence, we examine individual- and household-level evacuation decisions in response to the strong 11-Apr-2012 earthquake in Aceh, Indonesia. This earthquake did not produce a tsunami, but the population had previously experienced the devastating 2004 tsunami. We asked whether people evacuated in the 2012 earthquake and whether they did so immediately, as well as their evacuation intention if a similar earthquake happened in the future. Self-reported level of fear at the moment of the 2012 earthquake explains more of the variance in evacuation decisions and intentions than does a combination of more analytical perceptual measures modeled on Protection Motivation Theory. Although there was no tsunami in 2012, nearly all people say they would evacuate again in the future. For early-warning systems, these findings imply that societies may accept unnecessary evacuation under some conditions. Investigating this is an important input to finding the appropriate balance between false alarms and misses in each societal context.

Symposium title: The societal side of early warning and evacuation decisions