Comparative analysis of the probabilistic methods to estimate the probability of failure of offshore wind turbine towers

: Offshore wind energy experienced an exponential growth in installed power since the beginning of the current century. While this growing trend is expected to continue, further growth of the sector imposes more demanding... [ view full abstract ]

: Offshore wind energy experienced an exponential growth in installed power since the beginning of the current century. While this growing trend is expected to continue, further growth of the sector imposes more demanding engineering methods. It is then envisaged that enhanced technical competitiveness can be achieved through a progressively less deterministic design process. Under the described context, a comparative study on the applicability of different probabilistic methods to estimate the probability of failure (Pf) of offshore wind turbine (OWT) towers under extreme events is presented here. Depending on the complexity introduced in the analysis of the OWT towers the applicability of different probabilistic approaches may be limited. FORM, SORM, Monte Carlo Simulation are examples of well-established methodologies to estimate Pf. Nevertheless, alternative methodologies such as the directional simulation can be an even more efficient solution for the problem. This preliminary assessment of the probabilistic approaches enables further developments in reliability methodologies for the specific case of OWT towers.