Probabilistic Climate Change Adaptation Analysis for Timber Power Pole Infrastructure

According to the most recent IPCC report, warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and this warming may lead to increased risk of breakdown of infrastructure networks due to extreme weather. A key means of reducing future... [ view full abstract ]

According to the most recent IPCC report, warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and this warming may lead to increased risk of breakdown of infrastructure networks due to extreme weather. A key means of reducing future risk exposure is implementation of effective climate change adaptation strategies for critical infrastructure assets. This however constitutes a significant engineering challenge, for a variety of reasons discussed herein. The work described in this paper examines the regional variability of climate change adaptation feasibility for timber power pole networks, an important critical infrastructure asset. This is achieved through development of a Monte-Carlo event-based sequential model, which incorporates structural reliability, deterioration, climactic effects and network maintenance. The hazards of interest are storm winds and timber decay - both of which may worsen due to a changing climate. A probabilistic life-cycle cost-benefit analysis is used to examine the appropriateness of a single climate adaptation strategy for a notional network of one million poles, for three Australian cities; Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra. The feasibility of the climate adaptation strategy, which incorporates both alterations to network maintenance procedures and implementation of performance based design, was found to vary significantly across the three regions. The analysis indicated that the adaptation strategy would have a substantially more positive cost-benefit outcome for Sydney than for the other two locations. This highlights the difficulties associated with implementation of a nationwide climate adaptation strategy for a power pole networks in Australia, and indeed for critical infrastructure in general.