Between 2000 and 2015 the U.S. foster care caseload decreased while the number of children in adoptive homes doubled; in the U.S. there are 2.8 children living in federally-assisted adoptive and guardianship homes for every child in foster care. These shifts are a result of federal policies prioritizing the moving of children from state custody into legal permanence (e.g., adoption and guardianship) with the presumption they will live ‘happily ever after.’ While this shift is generally heralded as a major child welfare achievement, at the same time, there are lingering reservations about the pace of the change, the quality of the aftercare, and the variety of new family relationships that are financially assisted by the state.
Objectives. This study examines the long-term outcomes for children formerly in foster care who exited foster care through adoption or guardianship, and some pre- and post-permanency indicators of post-permanency discontinuity. This study uses child welfare administrative data from one U.S. state to examine the incident rate of discontinuity for the population of all children who exited foster care through adoption or guardianship between 1998 and 2010 (N=51,576). In addition, this presentation will summarize findings from Illinois that suggest key post-permanency characteristics found to be predictive of post-permanency discontinuity.
Method. This study uses child welfare administrative data from Illinois to examine the incident rate of discontinuity. Unlike most studies that track children for a couple of years post-permanence, this study tracked children for a minimum of ten years, or to the age of majority. Survival analysis was used to examine pre-permanency predictive factors associated with post-permanency discontinuity.
Results. Results found that 13% (N=6,781) of children experienced post-permanency discontinuity. For children who experienced discontinuity, their mean age at time of discontinuity was 13.2, SD=3.3 years old. Discontinuity outcomes were also examined by time since permanence: Two years post-permanence 2% of children who were adopted or exited through subsidized guardianship experienced post-permanency discontinuity; five years after adoption or guardianship, 6% experienced discontinuity, and ten years post-adoption or guardianship 12% experienced discontinuity. Multivariate analysis found that, controlling for race and gender, pre-permanence experiences were predictive of post-permanency outcomes. Specifically, for every move a child experienced while in foster care was associated with a 5% increase in the likelihood of experiencing post-permanency discontinuity (HR=1.05; CI=1.04, 1.07). Furthermore, the age of the child at the time of legal permanence had a curvilinear relationship; children who exited care prior to the age of 3 or over the age of twelve were least likely to experience discontinuity.
Conclusions. Examining the population of children who exited foster care through adoption or guardianship, this study found that the vast majority of children were is stable placements (87%). Furthermore, this study found several pre-permanence factors that are predictive of post-permanency discontinuity. Child welfare interventions that target families on the brink of disruption and dissolution serve the interests of children and families poorly. Post-permanency services should target families at the earliest sign of difficulty, rather than wait until there is a crisis to intervene. This study identified key characteristics that can be used to identify families most in need of post-permanency services.
I will also summarize a series of investigations that found strong evidence for two powerful predictors of post-permanency discontinuity: 1) the caregiver’s assessment of the child problem behaviors (using the Behavior Problem Index); and 2) a caregiver’s self-report of the frequency of times he or she thinks of ending the permanency relationship.
Taken together, results presented will provide the audience with an understanding of: (1) the incident rates for post-permanency discontinuity (2) pre-permanency and (3) post-permanency characteristics that are predictive of post-permanency discontinuity.
