The Evolution of Catholic-Protestant Labour Market Inequality in Northern Ireland, 1983-2012

Although a lively research agenda since 1975 was devoted to understanding why Catholics in Northern Ireland had substantially higher unemployment rates than Protestants, this agenda has received much less attention in recent... [ view full abstract ]

Although a lively research agenda since 1975 was devoted to understanding why Catholics in Northern Ireland had substantially higher unemployment rates than Protestants, this agenda has received much less attention in recent decades. This paper re-engages with this literature, not to revisit old arguments surrounding causal mechanisms, but to chart the evolution of unemployment inequality by religion through time (1983-2014). In addition, it explores inequality with respect to economic inactivity and non-employment outcomes. Linear regression analysis was applied to two individual-level datasets (the Northern Ireland Longitudinal Study and the Continuous Household Survey) to estimate whether Catholics continue to face a higher probability of unemployment, inactivity and non-employment than Protestants. Estimation results reveal three key findings: 1) the persistent relationship (observed since 1971) between unemployment and religion weakened considerably – but did not disappear – between 1991 and 2011, due mainly to a sharp fall in the male Catholic unemployment rate during the 1990s; 2) there is a comparatively minor gap between Catholic and Protestant inactivity rates which has not widened through time; and 3) the previously high level of non-employment rate inequality has fallen, particularly for males, but failed to disappear. Overall, the findings indicate that although the link between religion and each of these labour market outcomes has mostly weakened through time, it has not been severed completely. Potential explanations for the declining importance of religion in the labour market include economic growth and structural economic change, a decline in past processes of labour market discrimination, and Fair Employment legislation enacted in 1976 and 1989 which aimed to constrain such processes. Suggested areas for further research to explain religion’s (albeit minor) continued impact include estimating scarring effects from past unemployment experience or measuring the strength of intergenerational linkages.