Refugees, migrants and the right-wing vote share: evidence from Sweden

In this paper we investigate whether the proportion of migrants in a local area affects the success of an anti-immigration political party. Using Swedish municipality level data, we focus on the impact of large inflows of... [ view full abstract ]

In this paper we investigate whether the proportion of migrants in a local area affects the success of an anti-immigration political party. Using Swedish municipality level data, we focus on the impact of large inflows of migrants, many of whom were refugees, from non-OECD countries in the 1980s and 1990s. In order to address concerns over the endogeneity of migrant location, we exploit a refugee placement policy which aimed to disperse refugees across the country. Initial OLS estimates suggest that a one percentage point increase in the migrant share is associated with a 0.28 percentage point increase in the New Democracy vote share. However, we do not find evidence of a positive relationship between the arrival of refugees and the New Democracy vote share in our 2SLS estimation. Further analysis suggests that our OLS results are driven by municipalities surrounding the three major urban areas of Stockholm, Gothenburg and Malmö. In addition, we find no evidence that natives responded to an influx of migrants by relocating to another area.