Irish Economic Association Annual Conference 2018 Programme

2018,

10th - 11th May

Irish Economic Association Annual Conference 2018

Conference Programme

Thursday, 10th May
Thursday 08:30 - 09:00	Registration and Coffee
Thursday 09:00 - 10:30	1A Public Economics 1 Venue Lee Room
Respect your elders: evidence from Ireland's R&D tax credit reform » Jean Acheson (Department of Finance), Rory Malone (Department of Finance) Paying over the odds at the end of the fiscal year: Evidence from Ukraine » Margaryta Klymak (Trinity College Dublin), Stuart Baumann (NA) The Direct and Spillover Effects of Taxation: Evidence from a Property Tax Break for First-Time Buyers » Enda Hargaden (University of Tennessee) Follow the Leader? The Interaction between Public and Private Sector Wage Growth in the UK » Arno Hantzsche (National Institute of Economic and Social Research), Amit Kara (National Institute of Economic and Social Research), Peter Dolton (National Institute of Economic and Social Research)
Thursday 09:00 - 10:30	1B Financial Economics 1 Venue Shannon Room
Positive Liquidity Spillovers from Sovereign Bond-Backed Securities » Peter Dunne (Central Bank of Ireland) A Multi-Century Perspective on Return Predictability and Price Bubbles » Don Bredin (University), Valerio Poti (University College Dublin), Marco Bianco (University College Dublin) Regulatory Penalties and Reputational Risk: Evidence from Systematically Important Financial Institutions » Sharadha V Tilley (Dublin Institute of Technology), Brian Byrne (Dublin Institute of Technology) Determinants of households' switching demand and execution » Shane Byrne (Central Bank of Ireland), Kenneth Devine (Central Bank), Elena Mazza (Central Bank of Ireland), Yvonne McCarthy (Central Bank of Ireland), Conor O'toole (Economic and Social Research Institute)
Thursday 09:00 - 10:30	1C Economics of Health and Education Venue GE.01
The Human Capital Cost of Radiation: Long-Term Evidence form outside the Womb » Benjamin Elsner (University College Dublin), Florian Wozny (IZA - Institute of Labor Economics) School Tracking and Mental Health » Petri Böckerman (Labour Institute for Economic Research, University of Jyväskylä, and IZA), Mika Haapanen (University of Jyväskylä), Christopher Jepsen (University College Dublin), Alexandra Roulet (INSEAD) Household Decision Making with Violence: Implications for Transfer Programs » Alejandra Ramos (Trinity College Dublin) Heterogeneity in Early Life Investments: A Longitudinal Analysis of Children's Time Use » Slawa Rokicki (University College Dublin), Mark McGovern (Queen's University Belfast)
Thursday 10:30 - 11:00	Coffee Break
Thursday 11:00 - 12:30	2A Economic History 1 Venue Lee Room
Rise and Fall in the Third Reich: Social Mobility and Nazi Membership » Alan de Bromhead (Queen's University Belfast), Matthias Blum (Queen's University Belfast) The Economic Geography of Late Industrialisation: Local Finance and the Cost of Distance in Imperial Russia » Marvin Suesse (Trinity College Dublin), Theocharis Grigoriadis (Free University Berlin) Perfect Mechanics: Artisan Skills and the Origins of the Industrial Revolution » Morgan Kelly (University College Dublin) Economic Policy and the Common Good » Rowena Pecchenino (Maynooth University)
Thursday 11:00 - 12:30	2B Applied Micro 1 Venue Shannon Room
What if cartel members can use leniency programs strategically? » Catarina Marvao (Dublin Institute of Technology) The Take-Up of Medical and GP Visit Cards in Ireland » Claire Keane (Economic and Social Research Institute), Mark Regan (Economic and Social Research Institute) Dodging the deadweight death-spiral: Efficiency and equity implications of UK electricity tariff reform » Niall Farrell (University of Oxford, Institute of New Economic Thinking) The education, work and fertility decisions of women » Barra Roantree (University College London)
Thursday 11:00 - 12:30	2C Monetary Policy and Asset Pricing Chaired By: GE.01
Monetary Policy Shocks and Bank Lending: Evidence from the euro area and United States » David Byrne (Central Bank of Ireland), Robert Kelly (Central Bank of Ireland) The political economy of reforms in central bank design: evidence from a new dataset » Davide Romelli (Trinity College Dublin) Commodity Pricing: Evidence from Rational and Behavioral Models » Don Bredin (University College Dublin), Valerio Poti (University College Dublin), Enrique Salvador (Universitat Jaume I)
Thursday 12:30 - 13:30	Lunch
Thursday 13:30 - 15:00	3A Economic History 2 Venue Lee Room
Patent Costs and the Value of Invention: Explaining Patenting Behaviour between England, Ireland and Scotland, 1617-1852 » Stephen Billington (Queen's University Belfast) The Impact of the Great Irish Famine on Irish Mass Migration to the USA at the turn of the twentieth century » Gayane Vardanyan (Trinity College Dublin), Gaia Narciso (Trinity College Dublin), Battista Severgnini (Copenhagen Business School) The impact of depression and deglobalization on agricultural outcomes: Insights from interwar Ireland » Tara Mitchell (Trinity College Dublin), Ronan Lyons (Trinity College Dublin) Poverty and Population in Pre-Famine Ireland » Alan Fernihough (Queen's University Belfast), Cormac Ó Gráda (University College Dublin)
Thursday 13:30 - 15:00	3B Multinational Firms Chaired By: Shannon Room
America First? A US-centric view of global capital flows » Martin Schmitz (European Central Bank), Peter McQuade (Central Bank of Ireland) Corporate Taxation and the Location Choice of Foreign Direct Investment in the EU Countries » Ron Davies (University College Dublin), Iulia Siedschlag (Economic and Social Research Institute), Zuzanna Studnicka (University College Dublin) U.S. corporate income tax cuts: Spillovers to the Irish economy » Daragh Clancy (European Stability Mechanism - ESM) The contribution of foreign companies to the business economy and corporate income tax base in Ireland » Seamus Coffey (University College Cork)
Thursday 13:30 - 15:00	3C Financial Economics 1 Venue GE.01
Clearinghouse-Five: Determinants of voluntary clearing in European derivatives markets » Pawel Fiedor (Centra) The Implications of Tail Dependency for Counterparty Credit Risk Pricing » Juan Carlos Arismendi Zambrano (Maynooth University), Herbert Kimura (University of Brasilia), Vladimir Belitsky (University of Sao Paulo), Vinicius Amorim Sobreiro (University of Brasilia) Money Market Funds and Unconventional Monetary Policy » Jacopo Sorbo (Central Bank of Ireland), GIOVANNA BUA (Central Bank of Ireland), Peter Dunne (Central Bank of Ireland) What 'special purposes' explain cross-border debt funding by banks? Evidence from Ireland » Brian Golden (Central Bank of Ireland), Eduardo Maqui (Central Bank of Ireland)
Thursday 15:00 - 15:30	Coffee Break
Thursday 15:30 - 16:45	4A Macroeconomics of the Irish Economy Venue Lee Room
Disentangling Credit Shocks in the Irish Mortgage Market » Michael O'Grady (Central Bank of Ireland) Inside the "Upside Down": Estimating Ireland's Output Gap » Eddie Casey (Irish Fiscal Advisory Council and UCD) Modelling External Shocks in a Small Open Economy: The Case of Ireland » Thomas Conefrey (Central Bank of Ireland), Graeme Walsh (Central Bank of Ireland), Gerard O Reilly (Central Bank of Ireland)
Thursday 15:30 - 16:45	4B Labour Economics Venue Shannon Room
Employment and Hours Impacts of the National Minimum Wage and National Living Wage in Northern Ireland » Duncan McVicar (Queen's University Belfast), Andrew Park (University of Ulster), Seamus Mcguinness (ESRI) Estimating the Effect of an Increase in the Minimum Wage on Hours Worked and Employment in Ireland » Paul Redmond (ESRI), Seamus Mcguinness (ESRI) Taxpayer Responsiveness and Statutory Incidence: Evidence from Irish Social Security Notches » Enda Hargaden (University of Tennessee), Barra Roantree (Institute for Fiscal Studies)
Thursday 15:30 - 16:45	4C Measurement and Methods Venue GE.01
Macro and Micro Estimates of Irish Household Wealth » Mary Cussen (Central Bank of Ireland), Reamonn Lydon (Central Bank of Ireland), Cormac O'Sullivan (Central Bank of Ireland) New Characteristics and Hedonic Price Index Numbers » Ian Crawford (University of Oxford), Peter Neary (University of Oxford) Patterns of Firm Level Productivity in Ireland » Javier Papa (Department of Business, Enterprise and Innovation), Luke Rehill (Department of Finance), Brendan O'Connor (Department of Finance)
Thursday 17:00 - 18:30	KN-1 Plenary Session Economic and Social Review Guest Lecture Venue Lee & Shannon Rooms
17:00 The ECON101 paradigm is broken - what is the alternative? » Professor Wendy Carlin University College London and Core Project
Thursday 19:30 - 22:00	Conference Dinner Venue Ely IFSC CHQ Building
Friday, 11th May
Friday 09:00 - 10:30	5A Macroeconomic Modelling Venue Lee Room
Shadow Bank run: The Story of a Recession » Hamed Ghiaie (Universite de Cergy-Pontoise) Real exchange rate dynamics in New-Keynesian models - The Balassa-Samuelson mechanism revisited » Maren Brede (Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin) Factor Misallocation and Adjustment Costs: Evidence from Italy » Robert Goodhead (Central Bank of Ireland / European University Institute) The Effect of Rents on Wages when Labour is Mobile Across Regions » Matija Lozej (Central Bank of Ireland), Stephen Byrne (Central Bank of Ireland)
Friday 09:00 - 10:30	5B Banking Venue Shannon Room
EU banks and profit shifting: preliminary evidence from country-by-country reporting » Wildmer Daniel Gregori (European Commission - JRC), Serena Fatica (European Commission - JRC) Cross-border banking in the EU since the crisis: what is driving the great retrenchment? » Lorenz Emter (Central Bank of Ireland), Martin Schmitz (European Central Bank), Marcel Tirpak (European Central Bank) Banking crises and investments in innovation » Oana Peia (University College Dublin) Pockets of risk in European Mortgage Markets: then and now » Jane Kelly (Central Bank of Ireland), Reamonn Lydon (Central Bank of Ireland), Julia Le Blanc (Deutsche Bundesbank)
Friday 09:00 - 10:30	5C Agriculture and Natural Resources Venue GE.01
Sea bass angling in Ireland: a structural equation model of catch and effort » Gianluca Grilli (Economic and Social Research Institute), John Curtis (Economic and Social Research Institute), Stephen Hynes (National University of Ireland, Galway), Paul O'Reilly (Inland Fisheries Ireland) Understanding Farmer's Valuation of Agricultural Insurance: Evidence from Viet Nam » Michael King (Trinity College Dublin), Anuj Singh (Trinity College Dublin) Accounting for technology heterogeneities and policy change in farm level efficiency analysis: an application to the Irish beef sector » Maria Martinez Cillero (Economic and Social Research Institute), Michael Wallace (Newcastle University), Fiona Thorne (Teagasc), James Breen (University College Dublin) The impact of residential 'weatherisation' schemes on the domestic energy consumption of Irish households » Bryan Coyne (Trinity College Dublin), Eleanor Denny (Trinity College Dublin)
Friday 10:30 - 11:00	Coffee Break
Friday 11:00 - 12:30	6A International Trade Venue Lee Room
The Heterogeneous Impact of Brexit: Early Indications from the FTSE » Ron Davies (University College Dublin), Zuzanna Studnicka (University College Dublin) Research Dissemination, Distance and Borders » Lukas Kuld (TU Dortmund), Christiane Hellmanzik (TU Dortmund) What's Another Day? The Impact of Non-Tariff Barriers on Trade » Jonathan Rice (Central Bank of Ireland), Stephen Byrne (Central Bank of Ireland) Imported Intermediate Goods and Incomplete Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Export Prices » Alexander Firanchuk (Trinity College Dublin)
Friday 11:00 - 12:30	6B Macroprudential Policy Venue Shannon Room
An Early Warning System for Systemic Banking Crises - A Robust Model Specification » Michael Wosser (Central Bank of Ireland), Martin O'Brien (Central Bank of Ireland) The effectiveness of macroprudential policies in the euro area » Eóin Flaherty (Central Statistics Office, Ireland), Katarzyna Budnik (European Central Bank) Macroprudential Policy, Uncertainty and Household Savings Behaviour » Philip Economides (Economic and Social Research Institute), Kieran McQuinn (Economic and Social Research Institute), Conor O'Toole (Economic and Social Research Institute) Credit Booms, Macroprudential Policy and Financial Crises » Peter Karlström (University of Bologna)
Friday 11:00 - 12:30	6C Political Economy and Institutions Venue GE.01
Ebola, Resistance and State Legitimacy » Matthias Flueckiger (Queen's University Belfast), Markus Ludwig (University of Bayreuth), Ali Sina Oender (University of Bayreuth) Does Corruption Ease the Burden of Regulation? National and Subnational Evidence » Michael Breen (Dublin City University), Robert Gillanders (Dublin City University) Can labor market institutions mitigate the China syndrome? Evidence from regional labor markets in Western Europe » Jan-Luca Hennig (Trinity College Dublin) Refugees, migrants and the right-wing vote share: evidence from Sweden » Rachel Slaymaker (Economic and Social Research Institute), Giovanni Facchini (University of Nottingham), Richard Upward (University of Nottingham)
Friday 12:30 - 13:30	Lunch
Friday 13:30 - 15:00	7A Econometrics and Forecasting Chaired By: Lee Room
Forecasting with FAVAR: Macroeconomic versus Financial Factors » Alessia Paccagnini (University College Dublin) Phillips curves in the euro area » Laura Moretti (European Central Bank and Central Bank of Ireland), Luca Onorante (European Central Bank), Shayan Zakipour-Saber (Central Bank of Ireland) Model Averaging in a Multiplicative Heteroscedastic Model » Alan Wan (City University of Hong Kong), Xinyu Zhang (Chinese Academy of Sciences), Yanyuan Ma (Pennsylvania State University) Forecasting Irish Inflation after the crisis: Evaluating Multiple Bayesian Approaches » Stephen Byrne (Central Bank of Ireland), Shayan Zakipour-Saber (Central Bank of Ireland)
Friday 13:30 - 15:00	7B Macro Finance Venue Shannon Room
Financial Crises, Macroeconomic Shocks, and the Government Balance Sheet: A Panel Analysis » Matteo Ruzzante (Nova School of Business and Economics, Universidade Nova de Lisboa) Is Macroeconomic Uncertainty or Policy Uncertainty Priced in UK Stock Returns? » Niall O'Sullivan (University College Cork), Meadhbh Sherman (University College Cork), Jun Gao (University College Cork), Sheng Zhu (University College Cork) Eurobonds: A Quantitative Analysis of Joint-Liability Debt » Vasileios Tsiropoulos (Central Bank of Ireland) Constructing A Financial Conditions Index for the United Kingdom: A Comparative Analysis » Sheng Zhu (University College Cork), Ella Kavanagh (University College Cork), Niall O'Sullivan (University College Cork)
Friday 13:30 - 15:00	7C Applied Micro 2 Venue GE.01
Consumer Switching in European Energy Markets: A Comparative Assessment » Jason Harold (Economic and Social Research Institute), John Cullinan (National University of Ireland, Galway), Sean Lyons (Economic and Social Research Institute) Expectations of future care needs and wealth trajectories in retirement » Rowena Crawford (Institute for Fiscal Studies) Expected Child Mortality, Fertility Decisions, and the Demographic Dividend in Low and Middle Income Countries » Mark McGovern (Queen's University Belfast), David Canning (Harvard University)
Friday 15:00 - 15:15	Coffee Break
Friday 15:20 - 17:00	KN-2 Plenary Session: Edgeworth Guest Lecture Venue Lee and Shannon Rooms
15:20 Should we reject the natural rate hypothesis? » Professor Olivier Blanchard Peterson Institute for International Economics
Friday 17:15 - 17:45	8A Irish Economic Association AGM Venue Lee Room

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