Ebola, Resistance and State Legitimacy

We exploit the recent West African Ebola epidemic as an event that necessitated the provision of a common-interest public good, specifically, Ebola control measures, to empirically investigate the interrelationship between... [ view full abstract ]

We exploit the recent West African Ebola epidemic as an event that necessitated the provision of a common-interest public good, specifically, Ebola control measures, to empirically investigate the interrelationship between state legitimacy and public good provision. In a first step, we document that the implementation of new public policies is difficult in states with low legitimacy. Government-led Ebola control measures were met with resistance, particularly in early stages of the epidemic when the value of the public good was uncertain. In a second step, we investigate the effect of the epidemic on state legitimacy. Our regression results show that state legitimacy, measured as trust in central authorities, as well as state capacity, measured by the willingness to pay taxes, increased disproportionately in districts that experienced a greater exposure to Ebola. We argue, supported by results from SMS-message-based surveys, that a potentially important channel underlying this finding is the greater valuation for Ebola control measures in regions with intense Ebola transmission. To address concerns related to the possibility that the spread and intensity of the epidemic are influenced by local differences in state legitimacy or risk of unrest, we rely on a 2SLS-IV approach for identification. Observed Ebola case numbers are instrumented with simulation-derived predicted numbers. Variation in simulated timing and intensity of the EVD epidemic is restricted to aspects that are plausibly exogenous with respect to changes in unrest and legitimacy.