Modeling coastal vulnerability for insight into mangrove and coral reef conservation efforts in Cuba

Cuba, a tropical ecosystem located in the Caribbean region, supports a remarkable diversity of plant and animal species, and is home to one of the largest coral reef environments. Cuba maintains the ninth largest mangrove... [ view full abstract ]

Cuba, a tropical ecosystem located in the Caribbean region, supports a remarkable diversity of plant and animal species, and is home to one of the largest coral reef environments. Cuba maintains the ninth largest mangrove forest in the world, providing shoreline stability and wildlife habitat. Its coral reefs and mangrove forests provide vital protection to the island’s coastal population by reducing erosion and flooding that result from storms. These ecosystems are some of the most preserved in the world, however, they are under threat from the impacts of climate change, increased tourism, and urban development. While conservation leaders are aware of these impacts, they recognize the need for increased conservation planning and protection. Using an ecosystem-services conservation approach, we are assisting Cuban leaders to better understand the direct and indirect impacts of coastal habitat loss, and to identify the consequences of coastal development in exposing shorelines to erosion and inundation. Using the ecosystem services management software InVEST we developed a coastal vulnerability model and qualitatively estimate coastal exposure in terms of a Vulnerability index that differentiates areas with relatively high or low exposure to erosion and inundation during storm. By combining these results with population information, the model identifies areas along specified coastlines where communities are most vulnerable to storm waves and surges. With a more tangible understanding of the services provided by marine ecosystems conservation efforts can be maximized. This information will allow decision makers to concentrate restoration and protection efforts in providing resources where people need it most.