Applying a system-dynamics approach to support marine spatial planning in Algoa Bay, South Africa

The recent introduction of marine spatial planning (MSP) legislation in South Africa (SA) provides an opportunity to learn from global and local history, data and experience, and to make sensible, equitable decisions about the... [ view full abstract ]

The recent introduction of marine spatial planning (MSP) legislation in South Africa (SA) provides an opportunity to learn from global and local history, data and experience, and to make sensible, equitable decisions about the future management of SA’s marine environment. To date, a feasible method for translating this attractive concept into operational management practice in SA has not yet emerged, thus creating a niche to develop practical tools to make the MSP process more tangible. The Algoa Bay project aims to develop a local-scale marine spatial plan that will inform the development of plans for larger areas within SA’s national MSP process. The biophysical, socio-economic and legal systems within Algoa Bay are complex. MSP typically requires a thorough analysis of legal frameworks and human and environmental requirements. This study will test the feasibility of using a system-dynamics approach to model the interactions within the complex marine environment in Algoa Bay. The first stage of the study will focus on the environmental assessment through the development of a biophysical system-dynamics model, using available data, spanning all habitats, physical oceanographic processes and levels of biodiversity. Once spatially explicit socio-economic data becomes available in the second stage of the study, the model will integrate the new data to quantify and evaluate trade-offs between human and environmental needs. The objective of the model is to provide an interactive decision-support tool for stakeholders and decision makers to evaluate the outcomes of different management strategies, under global change scenarios, to inform ecosystem-based marine policy development.