Linking forecasted effects of climate change on marine species ranges to cross-jurisdictional fisheries management

Climate-driven changes in species distribution are likely to shift fisheries species across management and regulatory boundaries. Yet current ecosystem modelling tools applied to forecasting target species abundance and... [ view full abstract ]

Climate-driven changes in species distribution are likely to shift fisheries species across management and regulatory boundaries. Yet current ecosystem modelling tools applied to forecasting target species abundance and distribution require detailed data on species interactions and diets that are not available at sufficiently fine spatial and temporal scales, limiting the accuracy of forecasts of fisheries distribution in the future. Using commercially targeted fishes in the eastern Pacific as a test case, we address these challenges by: (1) developing a spatial modeling tool that integrates trait-based biotic interactions into forecast of species range and abundance change, and (2) synthesizing potential shifts in jurisdictional authority that could accompany shifts target species distribution and abundance. Our work offers a flexible method for anticipating adaptive cross-jurisdictional management options for multiple fisheries that are most vulnerable to ongoing ocean climate change.