Projecting the ecological and economic impacts of fisheries reform in Myanmar

Myanmar’s marine fisheries provide foreign currency and support domestic food security and livelihoods. Anecdotal evidence of overfishing suggests that many of these fisheries have declined and are underperforming relative... [ view full abstract ]

Myanmar’s marine fisheries provide foreign currency and support domestic food security and livelihoods. Anecdotal evidence of overfishing suggests that many of these fisheries have declined and are underperforming relative to their potential; current fishing rates likely threaten the health of Myanmar’s marine ecosystems and their associated benefits. The status of these fisheries is unknown, as are potential ecological and economic impacts of implementing more sustainable management measures. A lack of comprehensive landings data or repeated ecological surveys precludes application of conventional stock assessments or management strategy evaluation to assess effects of management options. Size-spectrum models are a useful approach for extremely data-limited contexts, but projections of fish stock recovery and yield require estimates of fishing mortality. We estimate fishing mortality from available length composition data, filling gaps with existing and novel methods based on Productivity Susceptibility Analysis and economic proxies. Using fishing mortality estimates and a size-spectrum model parameterized with data compiled by Environmental Defense Fund from scientific surveys, we project stock recovery and yield trajectories in response to management scenarios including reducing fishing mortality and implementing size limits. The model accounts for interactions between changing fishing activity and recovery of predator and prey populations, including the full range of trophic levels historically present. By projecting the impacts of various management interventions, the model helps managers and stakeholders understand potential benefits of fishery management and identify appropriate management strategies. Because the model and fishing mortality estimation methods have relatively minimal data requirements, they may be useful for other data-limited fisheries.